Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Title: The Emergence of Procyclical Fertility: The Role of Gender Differences in Employment Risk
Author-Name: Sena Coskun
Author-Email: sena.coskun@uni-mannheim.de
Author-Name: Husnu Dalgic
Author-Email: dalgic@uni-mannheim.de 

Classification-JEL: E24, E32, J11, J13, J16, J21, J24
Keywords: fertility, fertility cyclicality, industry cyclicality, gender asymmetric employment, gender income gap, quality-quantity trade-off

Abstract: Fertility in the US has exhibited a procyclical pattern since the 1970s. We argue that
gender differences in employment risk leads to procyclical fertility: men tend to work
in volatile and procyclical industries, while women are more likely to work in relatively
stable and countercyclical industries. The relative gender employment gap is countercyclical
as women become breadwinners in recessions, producing an insurance effect of
female income. Our quantitative framework features a general equilibrium OLG model
with endogenous fertility and human capital choice and shows that the current gender
industry composition in the US data fully accounts for the procyclicality observed. We
can also generate countercyclical fertility, as observed in the 1960s, either when the female
income share is low or procyclical. Finally, we argue that the insurance effect of
female income in bad times tilts the quality-quantity trade-off towards quality.

Note: 
Length: 37
Creation-Date: 2020-10
Revision-Date: 
File-URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp142
Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:CRCTR224_2020_142v2