Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Title: US Business Cycle Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound
Author-Name: Gregor Boehl
Author-Email: gboehl@uni-bonn.de
Author-Name: Felix Strobel
Author-Email: felix.strobel@bundesbank.de


Classification-JEL: C11, C63, E31, E32, E44
Keywords: Zero Lower Bound, Bayesian Estimation, Great Recession, Business Cycles

Abstract: Using a nonlinear Bayesian likelihood approach that fully accounts for the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, we analyze US post-crisis business cycle dynamics and provide reference parameter estimates. Contradicting the gist of the literature, we find that neither the inclusion of financial frictions nor that of household heterogeneity improve the empirical fit of the standard model, or its ability to provide a joint explanation for the post-2007 dynamics. Associated financial shocks mis-predict an increase in consumption. The common practice of omitting the ZLB period in the estimation severely distorts the analysis of the more recent economic dynamics.

Note: 
Length: 67
Creation-Date: 2020-07
Revision-Date: 
File-URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp192
File-Format: application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:CRCTR224_2020_192