Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Title: The Long-Run Effects of Immigration: Evidence Across a Barrier to Refugee Settlement 

Author-Name: Antonio Ciccone
Author-Email:antonio.ciccone@uni-mannheim.de
Author-Name: Jan Nimczik
Author-Email:jan.nimczik@esmt.org

Classification-JEL: O4, O11, R11
Keywords: immigration, productivity wages, refugess, long-run effects

Abstract: After the end of World War II in 1945, millions of refugees arrived in what in
1949 became the Federal Republic of Germany. We examine their eect on today's
productivity, wages, income, rents, education, and population density at the municipality
level. Our identification strategy is based on a spatial discontinuity in
refugee settlement at the border between the French and US occupation zones in
the South-West of post-war Germany. These occupation zones were established in
1945 and dissolved in 1949. The spatial discontinuity arose because the US zone
admitted refugees during the 1945-1949 occupation period whereas the French zone
restricted access. By 1950, refugee settlement had raised population density on the
former US side of the 1945-1949 border significantly above density on the former
French side. Before the war, there never had been significant dierences in population
density. The higher density on the former US side persists entirely in 2020
and coincides with higher rents as well as higher productivity, wages, and education
levels. We examine whether today's economic dierences across the former
border are the result of the dierence in refugee admission; the legacy of other
policy dierences between the 1945-1949 occupation zones; or the consequence of
socio-economic dierences predating WWII. Taken together, our results indicate
that today's economic dierences are the result of agglomeration eects triggered
by the arrival of refugees in the former US zone. We estimate that exposure to the
arrival of refugees raised income per capita by around 13% and hourly wages by
around 10%.

Note: 
Length: 74
Creation-Date: 2022-04
Revision-Date: 
File-URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp345
File-Format: application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:CRCTR224_2022_345