Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Sequential Choices, Option Values, and the Returns to Education Author-Name: Manudeep Bhuller Author-Email: manudeep.bhuller@econ.uio.no Author-Name: Philipp Eisenhauer Author-Email: peisen@amazon.com Author-Name: Moritz Mendel Author-Email: moritz.mendel12@gmail.com Classification-JEL: J24, J31, D80 Keywords: sequential decisions, ex-ante returns, option values, reform evaluation Abstract: Using detailed Norwegian data on earnings, education and work histories, we estimate a dynamic structural model of education and sector choices that captures rich life-cycle patterns by ability. We validate the model against variation in education choices induced by a compulsory schooling reform. Our approach allows us to estimate the ex-ante returns to different education tracks across the lifecycle by individual ability and quantify the contribution of option values. We find substantial heterogeneity in returns and establish crucial roles for option values and re-enrollment in determining education choices and the impact of schooling policies. Note: Length: 65 Creation-Date: 2024-07 Revision-Date: File-URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp575 File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:CRCTR224_2024_575