Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Debt, Human Capital, and the Allocation of Talent Author-Name: Titan Alon Author-Email: talon@ucsd.edu Author-Name: Natalie Cox Author-Email: nmcox@princeton.edu Author-Name: Minki Kim Author-Email: minki.kim@uni-mannheim.de Classification-JEL: E0, E2 Keywords: Student debt, occupation choice, wage profiles, credit constraints, misallocation of talent, college, higher education, labor productivity. Abstract: In the presence of credit frictions, student debt may prevent graduates from realizing the full returns to a college education by distorting their occupation choice and subsequent early career investments in human capital. This paper quantifies the aggregate size of these labor market distortions by computing the effect of large-scale student debt forgiveness policies. The model’s predictions are disciplined by new empirical evidence showing that more student debt leads to higher initial earnings, but lower returns-to-experience. The quantitative results suggest that rising student debt is having a substantial adverse effect on aggregate labor productivity and the occupational composition of employment. Note: Length: 61 Creation-Date: 2025-01 Revision-Date: File-URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp635 File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:CRCTR224_2025_635