Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Title: The Labor Market Impact of the Energy Crisis: Evidence from Germany
Author-Name: Katia Gallegos Torres
Author-Email:
Author-Name:Jakob Lehr
Author-Email:

  
Classification-JEL:  Q40, Q41, O12, L60, J31
Keywords: Energy Crisis, Manufacturing, Labor Markets, Ex-Post Analysis


Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of the 2022 energy price shock on German manufacturing using
newly available administrative data. We construct a Bartik-type exposure measure based
on pre-shock energy use and relate it to sector-, establishment-, and region-level outcomes.
While highly exposed sectors experienced sizable declines in production, we find no evidence
of adverse effects on employment. Instead, we consistently document negative effects on
wages. Our baseline estimates suggest that moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile of
the exposure distribution at the four-digit sector level is associated with an average annual
wage loss of about 2.5% over 2022–2023, corresponding to roughly €1,250 per worker. These
average effects mask substantial heterogeneity, with considerably larger wage declines for
new hires. At the local labor market level, we find evidence of spillovers from manufacturing
to other sectors.

Note: 
Length: 50
Creation-Date: 2026-02
Revision-Date: 
File-URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp730
File-Format: application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:CRCTR224_2025_730