# SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. A - 306

**Author**: Machina, Mark J., and David Schmeidler

**Title**: A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability

**Abstract**: Although their goal is to separate a decision maker's underlying beliefs
(their subjective probabilities of events) from their preferences (their
attitudes toward risk), classic choice-theoretic derivations of subjective
probability all rely upon some form of the Marschak-Samuelson "Independence
Axiom" or the Savage "Sure-Thing Principle," which is equivalent to
requiring that the decision maker's preferences over lotteries conform to
the expected utility hypothesis. This paper presents a choice-theoretic
derivation of subjective probability which satisfies the axioms of classical
probability theory, but which neither assumes nor implies that the decision
maker's preferences over lotteries necessarily conform to the expected
utility hypothesis.

**Keywords**:

**JEL-Classification-Number**:

**Creation-Date**: July 1990

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