SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 15
Author: Krelle, Wilhelm, Rumen Dobrinsky, Jan Gajda, Hermann Ross,
István Székely, and Heinz Welsch
Title: Economic Structural Change The Bonn-IIASA Research Project.
Theoretical Background and Actual State
Abstract: The last decade was and the next decades will still be periods of substantial structural economic change:
newly industrialized nations emerged, East Asia became one of the leading economic centers, new products and
new production technologies appeared, energy and environmental problems came to the fore and unemployment
and short and long term cycles were much in evidence. Thus IIASA decided to look into the problems of
structural change and long term fluctuations. Since February of this year a joint Bonn-IIASA research group has
been established at Bonn University which - in collaboration with research groups in most important
industrialized countries - should analyze and forecast economic structural change on the world level. This paper
outlines the theoretical background and shows how longterm fluctuations may arise. Afterwards the Bonn-
IIASA-Research project is presented in detail and some preliminary results are given.
Creation-Date: May 1985
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