SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 20
Author: Krelle, W., R. Dobrinsky, J. B. Gajda, H. Rose, I. Székely
and H. Welsch
Title: Economic Structural Change and Long-Term Fluctuations in Economic Growth
Abstract: The last decade was and the next decade will still be periods of substantial structural economic change:
newly industrialized nations emerged, East Asia became one of the leading economic centers, new products and
new production technologies appeared, energy and environmental problems came to the fore and unemployment
and short and long term cycles were much in evidence. Thus IIASA decided to look into the problems of
structural change and long-term fluctuations. Since February of this year a joint Bonn-IIASA Research Group
has been established at Bonn University which - in collaboration with research groups in the most important
industrialized countries - should analyse and forecast economic structural change on the world level. This paper
outlines the theoretical background and the special approach of the Bonn-IIASA Research Project and shows
how under these conditions long-term fluctuations may arise . In the second part of the paper some preliminary
results of the Bonn-IIASA Research Project are presented.
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