SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 24
Author: Krelle, Wilhelm
Title: Forecast of the West German Economic Development till 1999
Abstract: The joint Bonn-IIASA Research Project on Economic Growth and
Structural Change depends on the cooperation between country groups
working in the field of analysis and forecast of growth and structural
change of their country and the Central Group of the Project. In the
case of the FRG these two groups partly coincide : the so called
BONN MODEL 11 on which the following forecasts are based has
been developed by H.T. Sarrazin in connection with W. Krelle. The
BONN MODEL 11 emerged out of a long series of earlier models,
called Bonn Model 1,..., 10. The majority of these models are
published and their forecasting performance has been checked, (see
e.g. W. Krelle , Ökonomische Prognose-, Entscheidungs- und
Gleichgewichtsmodelle an der Universität Bonn, 1970-1984, to be
published 1986). Thus the forecasts may deserve at least some
confidence - of course, under the condition that the exogenous
variables develop in the assumed way. All forecasts are conditional
forecasts, no prophecies.
In the following the BONN MODEL 11 will be outlined.
Afterwards the forecasts are presented.
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