SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 24

Author: Krelle, Wilhelm
Title: Forecast of the West German Economic Development till 1999
Abstract: The joint Bonn-IIASA Research Project on Economic Growth and Structural Change depends on the cooperation between country groups working in the field of analysis and forecast of growth and structural change of their country and the Central Group of the Project. In the case of the FRG these two groups partly coincide : the so called BONN MODEL 11 on which the following forecasts are based has been developed by H.T. Sarrazin in connection with W. Krelle. The BONN MODEL 11 emerged out of a long series of earlier models, called Bonn Model 1,..., 10. The majority of these models are published and their forecasting performance has been checked, (see e.g. W. Krelle , Ökonomische Prognose-, Entscheidungs- und Gleichgewichtsmodelle an der Universität Bonn, 1970-1984, to be published 1986). Thus the forecasts may deserve at least some confidence - of course, under the condition that the exogenous variables develop in the assumed way. All forecasts are conditional forecasts, no prophecies.

In the following the BONN MODEL 11 will be outlined. Afterwards the forecasts are presented.
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Creation-Date: 1985
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