SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 26
Author: Krelle, Wilhelm, Jan B. Gajda, and Pawel Tomczyk
Title: East European Economies - Models and ForecastsBased on IES Systems
Abstract: Entire series of systems of models of the seven east European members of CMEA ( Bulgaria,
Czechoslovakia, GDR, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Soviet Union) was based on the assumption that the
similarities in the economic systems, trends in historic developments, geographic location etc. allow for similar
specification of equations of the country models, while special, individual features of some economies induce
modifications of the prototype model equations.The system consists of two subsystems. The first one contains
models of national economies, the second one - submodel of foreign trade understood as the main link between
the national models. In the prototype version links between national models are of very limited scope, as the
main stress is put on the interconnections between the main economic variables of a country and the impact of
foreign trade and especially debt burden on the domestic activity. Only then the submodel of foreign trade enters,
with its separation of intra-CMEA trade from the trade with the rest of the world.
Creation-Date: August 1985
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