SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 059

Author: Dobrinsky, Rumen
Title: Economic Growth and Structural Change in the CMEA Countries
Abstract: One part of the Bonn-IIASA Research Project is devoted to the analysis and forecast of economic growth and structural change in the seven European CMEA countries: Bulgaria, CSSR, GDR, Hungary, Poland, Romania and USSR. Some of the main results of this study are reported in this paper, concentrating on the factual aspects of the analysis and forecast. The specific methodological aspects of the approach applied with respect to the CMEA countries are described in more detail in a separate paper (Dobrinsky, 1986 b). The basic framework of the study follows the general approach of the Bonn-IIASA project which stems from neoclassical growth theory (Krelle, 1985). However, the approach to the CMEA countries differs in some important details which are due to the different behavior of economic agents in a socialist economy as compared to a market economy. Another cause of difference is the different accounting system in the CMEA countries whose statistics are based on the System of Material Product Balance (MPS). Since the CMEA country models were also constructed in accordance with the MPS, there are differences in the macroeconomic indicators used for the analysis and forecast of CMEA countries as compared to the market type economies. This paper is focused on the numerical results of our studies. However, what is more important is the understanding of economic growth and structural change as a medium- and long-term development, the effort to reveal and focus on the factors with long-term effect and eliminate those which only lead to short-run fluctuations. This analytical concept has been "materialised" in the macroeconomic models as the main tools for long-term analysis of economic growth and structural change.
Creation-Date: November 1986
Unfortunately this paper is not available online. Please contact us to order a hardcopy.

SFB 303 Homepage

12.10.1999, Webmaster