SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 059
Author: Dobrinsky, Rumen
Title: Economic Growth and Structural Change in the CMEA Countries
Abstract: One part of the Bonn-IIASA Research Project is devoted to the analysis and forecast of economic growth
and structural change in the seven European CMEA countries: Bulgaria, CSSR, GDR, Hungary, Poland,
Romania and USSR. Some of the main results of this study are reported in this paper, concentrating on the
factual aspects of the analysis and forecast. The specific methodological aspects of the approach applied with
respect to the CMEA countries are described in more detail in a separate paper (Dobrinsky, 1986 b). The basic
framework of the study follows the general approach of the Bonn-IIASA project which stems from neoclassical
growth theory (Krelle, 1985). However, the approach to the CMEA countries differs in some important details
which are due to the different behavior of economic agents in a socialist economy as compared to a market
economy. Another cause of difference is the different accounting system in the CMEA countries whose statistics
are based on the System of Material Product Balance (MPS). Since the CMEA country models were also
constructed in accordance with the MPS, there are differences in the macroeconomic indicators used for the
analysis and forecast of CMEA countries as compared to the market type economies. This paper is focused on
the numerical results of our studies. However, what is more important is the understanding of economic growth
and structural change as a medium- and long-term development, the effort to reveal and focus on the factors with
long-term effect and eliminate those which only lead to short-run fluctuations. This analytical concept has been
"materialised" in the macroeconomic models as the main tools for long-term analysis of economic growth and
structural change.
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Creation-Date: November 1986
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