SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 064

Author: Székely, István
Title: Economic Growth and Structural Change in Developing Countries
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present the models of developing countries (DC's)in the world model developed in the Bonn-IIASA Research Project on Economic Growth and Structural Change. The theoretical foundation of this world model can be found in Krelle (1985a) and in Krelle et al. (1985a) and the detailed description of the specification is given in Krelle (1985b).

The models of DCc presented in this paper are formulated for groups of countries. The only exception is India which is modelled separately because of her dominant size and different growth pattern. With respect to the formation of the groups our approach is different from those of the other world models. (See e.g. Leontief et al. (1977), Mesarovic and Pestel (1974), and Trade and Development report of UNCTAD). It is different in the sense that we chose representative countries in a region and formed the group from them. In doing so our main goal was to have as homogeneous groups as it was possible. To achieve this homogeneity the formation of the groups was based on the common cultural and historical background of the countries and on the similarities in their growth patterns.

The People's Republic of China was originally excluded from the model but during the last months several attempts were made to build up a data bank for China and there is a good hope that in the near future we can incorporate a model of the Chinese economy in our world model.

The paper is organised as follows. In the explanatory notes the technical aspects of the model are mentioned. Next the specification of the model is described in details. Finally the results of the ex- post and ex-ante simulations are presented.
Creation-Date: 1986
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