SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 74
Author: Krelle, Wilhelm
Title: The Future of the World Economy. Main Results of the Research Project
Abstract: We are concerned with medium term forecasts of the trend of economic growth and structural change on
the world level, i.e. with forecasts till the year 2000. These are conditional forecasts, of course; we are no
prophets. The conditions are assumptions of the future time paths of the driving forces of economic growth.
They depend on the success of the different governments to create favorable economic conditions within their
countries (or in the case of CMES-countries: to organize the economy efficiently) and to take advantage of world
trade and international division of labor. Given the size and development of these driving forces we may
estimate the future imports and their commodity composition, the general price level, the price levels of groups
of commodities and the exchange rates by means of a world model which consists of linked national models (or in the case of developing countries: models for groups of countries).
Creation-Date: November 1986
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