SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 221
Author: Brennscheidt, Gunnar
Title: Experiments on Predictions: Aggregate Behavior
Abstract: This paper describes some experiments on the influence of exogenous variables on expectations. In all
experiments, the time series to be predicted was generated by a linear econometric model involving two or three
artificial exogenous variables. After a literature review in this Chapter, Chapter 1 gives the theoretical
background for rational expectations and least-squares learning in presence of exogenous variables. Chapter 2
describes the experimental design and explains the notation. Chapter 3 turns to the analysis to aggregate (average
and median) predictions.
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Creation-Date: September 1992
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