SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 221

Author: Brennscheidt, Gunnar
Title: Experiments on Predictions: Aggregate Behavior
Abstract: This paper describes some experiments on the influence of exogenous variables on expectations. In all experiments, the time series to be predicted was generated by a linear econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. After a literature review in this Chapter, Chapter 1 gives the theoretical background for rational expectations and least-squares learning in presence of exogenous variables. Chapter 2 describes the experimental design and explains the notation. Chapter 3 turns to the analysis to aggregate (average and median) predictions.
Creation-Date: September 1992
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