SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 281

Author: Weber, Axel
Title: Testing Long-run Neutrality: Empirical Evidence for G7-Countries with Special Emphasis on Germany
Abstract: Modern neo-Keynesian, new classical, and real business cycle models typically differ in the degree to which they incorporate long-run or short-run neutrality propositions. Despite their importance, little firm international evidence on the validity of these neutrality hypotheses is available to date. The paper applies a bivariate VAR approach to test the long-run restrictions implied by a number of neoclassical neutrality propositions. The evidence from the G7-countries appears to be consistent with the long-run neutrality of money and the vertical Phillips-curve, but the data largely refute the long-run superneutrality of money and the 'Fisher-effect' of inflation on interest rates.
Keywords: unit roots, vector autoregressions, long-run, neutrality, superneutrality, 'Phillips-curve', 'Fisher-effect', 'Lucas-critique'
JEL-Classification-Number: E31, E43, E52
Creation-Date: Revised June 1994
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