SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 364

Author: Tang, Fang-Fang
Title: Anticipatory Learning in Two-Person Games: An Experimental Study Part III. Individual Analysis
Abstract: This part reports the individual analysis results. Section 3.2 statistically confirms our observation that quite a proportion of our subjects do not produce independent choice sequences. Section 3.3 lays out the simulation structure on the individual data according to the "best-reply" and "anticipatory-best-reply" modeling spirits and some general results. It seems that the "best-reply" thinking mode is more influential than the "anticipatory-best- reply" thinking mode at the individual level, nevertheless the latter seems neither absent nor negligible in the observed individual behavior patterns.
Section 3.4 outlines some statistic results - more exactly some analysis in the descriptive sense - of these individual simulations. Section 3.5 tries to explore the link between the individual behavior and the observed group aggregate behavior. It seems that only in game 1 does a more intensive use of history information somehow reduce individual choice changes, which might have (partly) caused the observed contrast in the aggregate patterns. Section 3.6 tries to explore the link between the payoff performance and other variables. It seems that only in game 2 is the individual behavior of less often changing choices generally correlated with the result of increasing final payoffs, most probably due to the influence of the pure strategy equilibria on individual behavior.
Creation-Date: March 1996
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