SFB 303 Discussion Paper No. B - 382

Author: Weidmann, Jens
Title: The Likelihood of European Monetary Union
Abstract: Using information contained in forward interest rates, this paper attempts to assess the probability that European Monetary Union (EMU) occurs and that a particular country participates. It is shown that since the Madrid "summit" the public has become increasingly optimistic about the realization of EMU. Furthermore, Germany, the Netherlands, France and Belgium are found to be the most likely candidates for the single currency project.
Keywords:
JEL-Classification-Number: F33
Creation-Date: July 1996
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