I am interested in how people manage risks over their life-cycles and in how much scope there is for public policy to reduce human inequality. What are the labour market consequences of ill health? How to efficiently design disability schemes? What can we say about individuals investing their wealth very inefficiently? Why do some people invest in the stock market and many do not? What influences retirement decisions? How do wages evolve over time in different occupations? I address these types of questions by combining innovative data, economic models, and up-to-date econometric methods.
Based on ongoing interactions with the great people at CentERdata, we collected several waves of data in the Dutch LISS panel starting a week into the first lockdown. In addition, I have been part of a great effort led by Janoś Gabler, Klara Röhrl, and Tobias Raabe to model the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany. Scientific publications below; all numbers also made it to the policy sphere.
Janoś Gabler, Tobias Raabe, Klara Röhrl, and Hans-Martin von Gaudecker: “The effectiveness of testing, vaccinations and contact restrictions for containing the CoViD-19 pandemic.” In: Scientific Reports 12, 8048 (2022). Previous version on arXiv, July 2021.
Christian Zimpelmann, Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, Radost Holler, Lena Janys, and Bettina Siflinger: “Hours and income dynamics during the Covid-19 pandemic: The case of the Netherlands”. Labour Economics, 102055 (2021).
Bettina Siflinger, Michaela Paffenholz, Sebastian Seitz, Moritz Mendel, and Hans-Martin von Gaudecker: “The COVID-19 Pandemic and Mental Health: Disentangling Crucial Channels”. IZA Discussion Paper No. 142666, April 2021. Updated version, May 2022. Corresponding Online Appendix
Household finance / preferences¶
Hans-Martin von Gaudecker and Axel Wogrolly “Heterogeneity in households’ stock market beliefs: Levels, dynamics, and epistemic uncertainty”. In: Journal of Econometrics (Subjective Expectations & Probabilities in Economics), 231.1 (Nov. 2022), pp 232-247. Online Appendix. Supersedes an earlier version titled “The Dynamics of Households’ Stock Market Expectations”.
Tilman Drerup, Benjamin Enke, and Hans-Martin von Gaudecker. “The Precision of Subjective Data and the Explanatory Power of Economic Models”. In: Journal of Econometrics (Measurement Error Models), 200.2 (Oct. 2017), pp. 378–389. Online Appendix, Replication Code
Hans-Martin von Gaudecker. “How Does Household Portfolio Diversification Vary with Financial Sophistication and Financial Advice?” In: Journal of Finance 70.2 (Apr. 2015), pp. 489–507. Replication Code (you will have to register for data access)
Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, Arthur van Soest, and Erik Wengström. “Experts in Experiments: How Selection Matters for Estimated Distributions of Risk Preferences”. In: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 42.2 (Oct. 2012), pp. 159–190.
Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, Arthur van Soest, and Erik Wengström. “Heterogeneity in Risky Choice Behaviour in a Broad Population”. In: American Economic Review 101.2 (Apr. 2011), pp. 664–694.
Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, Axel Wogrolly, and Christian Zimpelmann. “The Distribution of Ambiguity Attitudes”, Online Appendix, Replication Code.
Labour, income, health¶
Michael J. Böhm, Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, and Felix Schran. “Occupation Growth, Skill Prices, and Wage Inequality”. IZA Discussion Paper No. 12647, May 2022 update, Online Appendix, Replication Code (you will need to make a contract with the IAB for data access) Journal of Labor Economics, forthcoming
Norma B. Coe, Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, Maarten Lindeboom, and Jürgen Maurer. “The Impact of Retirement on Cognitive Functioning”. In: Health Economics 21.8 (Aug. 2012), pp. 913–927.
Pilar García-Gómez, Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, and Maarten Lindeboom. “Health, Disability and Work: Patterns for the Working Age Population”. In: International Tax and Public Finance 18.2 (2011), pp. 146–165.
Jérôme Adda, James Banks, and Hans-Martin von Gaudecker. “The Impact of Income Shocks on Health: Evidence from Cohort Data”. In: Journal of the European Economic Association 7.6 (Dec. 2009), pp. 1361–1399.
Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, Rembrandt D. Scholz, Dmitri A. Jdanov, Michael Stegmann, and Hans-Martin von Gaudecker. “Length of Life and the Pensions of Five Million Retired German Men”. In: European Journal of Public Health 18.3 (2008), pp. 264–269.
Hans-Martin von Gaudecker and Rembrandt D. Scholz. “Differential Mortality by Lifetime Earnings in Germany”. In: Demographic Research 17.4 (2007), pp. 83–108. Press coverage: Die Welt, FAZ, Spiegel Online .
- Eric French, Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, and John Bailey Jones. “The Effect of the Affordable Care Act on the Labor Supply, Savings, and Social Security of Older Americans”. Michigan Retirement Research Center Research Paper No. 2016-354, Oct. 2016 (no results from the structural model in that version yet).
A summary of preliminary results appeared in Korean: Eric French, Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, John Bailey Jones. (2017). 부담적정보험법이 미국 노동공급에 미치는 영향. International Labor Brief, 15(11), 9-22.
Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, Tim Obermeier, and Holger Stichnoth. “Women’s Career and Fertility Behaviours: Germany 1975-2007”.